Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Gael Monfils
To win
+$15.60
Total payout
$35.60
Joint prob
69.5%
Combined odds
1.78
Fair odds
1.44
Edge
+23.7%
Expected value: +$4.73 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.73 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 69.5% · fair market: 54.6% · edge: +27.3%
Model probabilities Rinky Hijikata 30.5% · Gael Monfils 69.5% Why Gael Monfils is favoured Gael Monfils's Elo (1579) is +65 over Rinky Hijikata (1514); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 32.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 30.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 69.5% vs market 54.6% (edge +27.3%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).