Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Federico Cinà
To win
+$27.40
Total payout
$47.40
Joint prob
42.4%
Combined odds
2.37
Fair odds
2.36
Edge
+0.5%
Expected value: +$0.10 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.10 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 42.4% · fair market: 41.0% · edge: +3.3%
Model probabilities Alex Molcan 57.6% · Federico Cinà 42.4% Calibration Raw model: 59.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 57.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 42.4% vs market 41.0% (edge +3.3%, suggested Kelly +0.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.