Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Francisco Cerundolo
To win
+$44.20
Total payout
$64.20
Joint prob
36.8%
Combined odds
3.21
Fair odds
2.72
Edge
+18.2%
Expected value: +$3.64 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.64 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 36.8% · fair market: 30.2% · edge: +21.9%
Model probabilities Daniil Medvedev 63.2% · Francisco Cerundolo 36.8% Why Daniil Medvedev is favoured Daniil Medvedev's Elo (1791) is +76 over Francisco Cerundolo (1715); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 69.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 63.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 36.8% vs market 30.2% (edge +21.9%, suggested Kelly +8.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.