Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Iga Swiatek
To win
+$7.00
Total payout
$27.00
Joint prob
77.5%
Combined odds
1.35
Fair odds
1.29
Edge
+4.7%
Expected value: +$0.93 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.93 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 77.5% · fair market: 72.1% · edge: +7.5%
Model probabilities Diana Shnaider 22.5% · Iga Swiatek 77.5% Why Iga Swiatek is favoured Iga Swiatek's Elo (1882) is +193 over Diana Shnaider (1689); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 16.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 22.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 77.5% vs market 72.1% (edge +7.5%, suggested Kelly +13.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.