Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Taylah Preston
To win
+$67.60
Total payout
$87.60
Joint prob
40.8%
Combined odds
4.38
Fair odds
2.45
Edge
+78.5%
Expected value: +$15.70 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$15.70 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 40.8% · fair market: 22.3% · edge: +82.4%
Model probabilities Taylor Townsend 59.2% · Taylah Preston 40.8% Why Taylor Townsend is favoured Taylor Townsend's Elo (1652) is +124 over Taylah Preston (1528); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 76.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 59.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 40.8% vs market 22.3% (edge +82.4%, suggested Kelly +23.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.