Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Martin Landaluce
To win
+$18.60
Total payout
$38.60
Joint prob
59.8%
Combined odds
1.93
Fair odds
1.67
Edge
+15.3%
Expected value: +$3.07 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.07 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 59.8% · fair market: 50.3% · edge: +18.9%
Model probabilities Martin Landaluce 59.8% · Jan-Lennard Struff 40.2% Why Martin Landaluce is favoured Martin Landaluce's Elo (1536) is +43 over Jan-Lennard Struff (1493); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 62.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 59.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 59.8% vs market 50.3% (edge +18.9%, suggested Kelly +16.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.