Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 49.5% · fair market: 48.8% · edge: +1.4%
Model probabilities Katerina Siniakova 49.5% · Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 50.5% Why Jessica Bouzas Maneiro is favoured Katerina Siniakova's Elo (1610) is +97 over Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (1513); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 73.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 49.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.