Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Quentin Halys
To win
+$24.20
Total payout
$44.20
Joint prob
56.6%
Combined odds
2.21
Fair odds
1.77
Edge
+25.0%
Expected value: +$5.00 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.00 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 56.6% · fair market: 44.1% · edge: +28.4%
Model probabilities Quentin Halys 56.6% · Alexander Blockx 43.4% Why Quentin Halys is favoured Quentin Halys's Elo (1538) is +28 over Alexander Blockx (1509); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 58.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 56.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 56.6% vs market 44.1% (edge +28.4%, suggested Kelly +20.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.