Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Matteo Arnaldi
To win
+$21.60
Total payout
$41.60
Joint prob
57.8%
Combined odds
2.08
Fair odds
1.73
Edge
+20.3%
Expected value: +$4.06 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.06 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 57.8% · fair market: 46.5% · edge: +24.3%
Martin Landaluce recently secured a significant first-round victory at the Cincinnati Masters 1000, ending a multi-week main draw winless streak. He displayed strong mental fortitude by saving six set points and overcoming a 5-2 deficit in the second set against Jack Draper.
Lineup: Expected to start in the second round of the ATP Cincinnati Open against Matteo Arnaldi.
Matteo Arnaldi recently experienced a defeat in the round of 32 at the Montreal Masters, losing to Tallon Griekspoor. This adds to a challenging season that has included withdrawals and early exits from tournaments.
Lineup: Expected to start in the second round of the ATP Cincinnati Open against Martin Landaluce.
“Martin Landaluce enters Cincinnati Open second round with momentum after comeback win, while Matteo Arnaldi looks to rebound from recent Montreal loss.”
Model probabilities Martin Landaluce 42.2% · Matteo Arnaldi 57.8% Why Matteo Arnaldi is favoured Martin Landaluce's Elo (1535) is +14 over Matteo Arnaldi (1521); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 59.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 57.8% vs market 46.5% (edge +24.3%, suggested Kelly +18.8% of bankroll). News context Martin Landaluce enters Cincinnati Open second round with momentum after comeback win, while Matteo Arnaldi looks to rebound from recent Montreal loss. Martin Landaluce: Martin Landaluce recently secured a significant first-round victory at the Cincinnati Masters 1000, ending a multi-week main draw winless streak. He displayed strong mental fortitude by saving six set points and overcoming a 5-2 deficit in the second set against Jack Draper. Matteo Arnaldi: Matteo Arnaldi recently experienced a defeat in the round of 32 at the Montreal Masters, losing to Tallon Griekspoor. This adds to a challenging season that has included withdrawals and early exits from tournaments.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.