Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Novak Djokovic
To win
+$5.80
Total payout
$25.80
Joint prob
86.8%
Combined odds
1.29
Fair odds
1.15
Edge
+12.0%
Expected value: +$2.39 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.39 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 86.8% · fair market: 75.5% · edge: +15.0%
Model probabilities Bu Yunchaokete 13.2% · Novak Djokovic 86.8% Why Novak Djokovic is favoured Novak Djokovic's Elo (1896) is +311 over Bu Yunchaokete (1585); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 9.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 13.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 86.8% vs market 75.5% (edge +15.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.