Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Juan Manuel Cerundolo
To win
+$81.60
Total payout
$101.60
Joint prob
23.0%
Combined odds
5.08
Fair odds
4.34
Edge
+17.0%
Expected value: +$3.40 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.40 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 23.0% · fair market: 19.2% · edge: +19.7%
Model probabilities Juan Manuel Cerundolo 23.0% · Felix Auger-Aliassime 77.0% Why Felix Auger-Aliassime is favoured Felix Auger-Aliassime's Elo (1809) is +245 over Juan Manuel Cerundolo (1564); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 12.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 23.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 23.0% vs market 19.2% (edge +19.7%, suggested Kelly +4.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.