Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Botic van de Zandschulp
To win
+$41.40
Total payout
$61.40
Joint prob
52.6%
Combined odds
3.07
Fair odds
1.90
Edge
+61.4%
Expected value: +$12.29 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$12.29 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 52.6% · fair market: 31.6% · edge: +66.3%
Model probabilities Botic van de Zandschulp 52.6% · Hubert Hurkacz 47.4% Why Botic van de Zandschulp is favoured Elo essentially level (1613 vs 1605) — winner depends on context. +EV vs market home: model 52.6% vs market 31.6% (edge +66.3%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.