Model probabilities Luca Van Assche 15.1% · Learner Tien 84.9% Why Learner Tien is favoured Learner Tien's Elo (1731) is +290 over Luca Van Assche (1441); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 10.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 15.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.