Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alejandro Tabilo
To win
+$45.00
Total payout
$65.00
Joint prob
71.3%
Combined odds
3.25
Fair odds
1.40
Edge
+131.8%
Expected value: +$26.35 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$26.35 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 71.3% · fair market: 30.0% · edge: +138.0%
Model probabilities Rafael Jodar 28.7% · Alejandro Tabilo 71.3% +EV vs market away: model 71.3% vs market 30.0% (edge +138.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.