Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Clara Tauson
To win
+$39.80
Total payout
$59.80
Joint prob
37.7%
Combined odds
2.99
Fair odds
2.65
Edge
+12.8%
Expected value: +$2.56 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.56 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 37.7% · fair market: 32.5% · edge: +16.0%
Model probabilities Linda Noskova 62.3% · Clara Tauson 37.7% Why Linda Noskova is favoured Linda Noskova's Elo (1762) is +164 over Clara Tauson (1598); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 81.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 62.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 37.7% vs market 32.5% (edge +16.0%, suggested Kelly +6.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.