Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Leylah Fernandez
To win
+$7.80
Total payout
$27.80
Joint prob
79.9%
Combined odds
1.39
Fair odds
1.25
Edge
+11.0%
Expected value: +$2.21 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.21 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 79.9% · fair market: 69.5% · edge: +14.9%
Model probabilities Renata Zarazua 20.1% · Leylah Fernandez 79.9% Why Leylah Fernandez is favoured Leylah Fernandez's Elo (1644) is +151 over Renata Zarazua (1493); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 79.9% vs market 69.5% (edge +14.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).