Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jelena Ostapenko
To win
+$13.60
Total payout
$33.60
Joint prob
73.6%
Combined odds
1.68
Fair odds
1.36
Edge
+23.7%
Expected value: +$4.74 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.74 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 73.6% · fair market: 57.8% · edge: +27.4%
Model probabilities Tatjana Maria 26.4% · Jelena Ostapenko 73.6% Why Jelena Ostapenko is favoured Jelena Ostapenko's Elo (1580) is +181 over Tatjana Maria (1399); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 17.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 26.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 73.6% vs market 57.8% (edge +27.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.