Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Valentin Vacherot
To win
+$35.80
Total payout
$55.80
Joint prob
38.6%
Combined odds
2.79
Fair odds
2.59
Edge
+7.8%
Expected value: +$1.56 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.56 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 38.6% · fair market: 34.8% · edge: +11.0%
Model probabilities Jiri Lehecka 61.4% · Valentin Vacherot 38.6% Why Jiri Lehecka is favoured Jiri Lehecka's Elo (1737) is +65 over Valentin Vacherot (1671); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 67.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 61.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 38.6% vs market 34.8% (edge +11.0%, suggested Kelly +4.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.