Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Ugo Humbert
To win
+$2.00
Total payout
$22.00
Joint prob
82.2%
Combined odds
1.10
Fair odds
1.22
Edge
-9.6%
Expected value: $-1.92 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-1.92 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 82.2% · fair market: 71.4% · edge: +15.2%
Model probabilities Ugo Humbert 82.2% · Daniel Merida Aguilar 17.8% +EV vs market home: model 82.2% vs market 71.4% (edge +15.2%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).