Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Anna Kalinskaya
To win
+$14.20
Total payout
$34.20
Joint prob
72.8%
Combined odds
1.71
Fair odds
1.37
Edge
+24.4%
Expected value: +$4.88 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.88 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 72.8% · fair market: 56.5% · edge: +28.8%
Caty McNally is competing in her hometown WTA Cincinnati Open, carrying positive momentum after securing a first-round victory. She has successfully navigated a past elbow injury and is currently enjoying a healthy and competitive season.
Lineup: Caty McNally is expected to start in the singles match.
Anna Kalinskaya is set to compete at the WTA Cincinnati Open, looking to improve her recent mixed form. There have been no new injury concerns reported for Kalinskaya in the last seven days.
Lineup: Anna Kalinskaya is expected to start in the singles match.
“Caty McNally enters Cincinnati Open with hometown advantage and recent win, while Anna Kalinskaya seeks to rebound from a recent loss.”
Model probabilities Caty McNally 27.2% · Anna Kalinskaya 72.8% Why Anna Kalinskaya is favoured Anna Kalinskaya's Elo (1683) is +110 over Caty McNally (1573); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 25.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 27.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 72.8% vs market 56.5% (edge +28.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). News context Caty McNally enters Cincinnati Open with hometown advantage and recent win, while Anna Kalinskaya seeks to rebound from a recent loss. Caty McNally: Caty McNally is competing in her hometown WTA Cincinnati Open, carrying positive momentum after securing a first-round victory. She has successfully navigated a past elbow injury and is currently enjoying a healthy and competitive season. Anna Kalinskaya: Anna Kalinskaya is set to compete at the WTA Cincinnati Open, looking to improve her recent mixed form. There have been no new injury concerns reported for Kalinskaya in the last seven days.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.