Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Paula Badosa
To win
+$10.80
Total payout
$30.80
Joint prob
65.3%
Combined odds
1.54
Fair odds
1.53
Edge
+0.6%
Expected value: +$0.12 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.12 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 65.3% · fair market: 62.8% · edge: +4.0%
Model probabilities Jelena Ostapenko 34.7% · Paula Badosa 65.3% Why Paula Badosa is favoured Paula Badosa's Elo (1639) is +59 over Jelena Ostapenko (1580); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 65.3% vs market 62.8% (edge +4.0%, suggested Kelly +1.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.