Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Cameron Norrie
To win
+$21.20
Total payout
$41.20
Joint prob
53.5%
Combined odds
2.06
Fair odds
1.87
Edge
+10.3%
Expected value: +$2.06 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.06 on a $20 stake.
Market: Unibet (NL) ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.5% · fair market: 46.1% · edge: +16.2%
Model probabilities Cameron Norrie 53.5% · Denis Shapovalov 46.5% Why Cameron Norrie is favoured Cameron Norrie's Elo (1633) is +15 over Denis Shapovalov (1617); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 54.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 53.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 53.5% vs market 46.1% (edge +16.2%, suggested Kelly +9.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.