Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Taylor Fritz
To win
+$11.80
Total payout
$31.80
Joint prob
77.3%
Combined odds
1.59
Fair odds
1.29
Edge
+22.9%
Expected value: +$4.59 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.59 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 77.3% · fair market: 61.1% · edge: +26.5%
Model probabilities Brandon Nakashima 22.7% · Taylor Fritz 77.3% Why Taylor Fritz is favoured Taylor Fritz's Elo (1754) is +127 over Brandon Nakashima (1627); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 77.3% vs market 61.1% (edge +26.5%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.