Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Gustavo Heide
To win
+$52.40
Total payout
$72.40
Joint prob
63.6%
Combined odds
3.62
Fair odds
1.57
Edge
+130.2%
Expected value: +$26.04 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$26.04 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 63.6% · fair market: 26.4% · edge: +140.7%
Model probabilities Luca Van Assche 36.4% · Gustavo Heide 63.6% Why Gustavo Heide is favoured Gustavo Heide's Elo (1485) is +13 over Luca Van Assche (1473); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 46.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 36.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 63.6% vs market 26.4% (edge +140.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).