▸ Sealed before kickoff3.0h before kickoff2026-08-04 19:01 UTC· result settled — verifiable
100%
High confidence
clear rating gap · strong sample · confident top pick
How the model did
Final
0 — 2
Alex de Minaur won
✓ Model was right
Model assigned
92.3%
to alex de minaur
Model's top pick
away
top probability
Brier (↓ better)
0.012
Log loss (↓ better)
0.081
Graded Aug 5, 2026 · 04:03
Form & matchup
James Duckworth
Elo 1416
No recent matches on file.
Alex de Minaur
Elo 1774
No recent matches on file.
Rating edge
Alex de Minaur +358
Confidence: 100%
Head to head
No prior meetings on file.
Rest days
James Duckworth
–
Alex de Minaur
–
Model probability
v0.1.0-elo-logistic ·
James Duckworth
7.7%
Alex de Minaur
92.3%
0 priced, 11 markets without prices hidden
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Reasoning
Model probabilities
James Duckworth 7.7% · Alex de Minaur 92.3%
Why Alex de Minaur is favoured
Alex de Minaur's Elo (1774) is +348 over James Duckworth (1426); high confidence.
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