Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Arantxa Rus
To win
+$31.80
Total payout
$51.80
Joint prob
52.4%
Combined odds
2.59
Fair odds
1.91
Edge
+35.7%
Expected value: +$7.13 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.13 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 52.4% · fair market: 37.6% · edge: +39.3%
Model probabilities Arantxa Rus 52.4% · Leolia Jeanjean 47.6% Why Arantxa Rus is favoured Arantxa Rus's Elo (1429) is +58 over Leolia Jeanjean (1371); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 65.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 52.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 52.4% vs market 37.6% (edge +39.3%, suggested Kelly +22.4% of bankroll).