Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Learner Tien
To win
+$8.00
Total payout
$28.00
Joint prob
82.7%
Combined odds
1.40
Fair odds
1.21
Edge
+15.7%
Expected value: +$3.14 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.14 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 82.7% · fair market: 69.5% · edge: +18.9%
Model probabilities Learner Tien 82.7% · Thiago Agustin Tirante 17.3% Why Learner Tien is favoured Learner Tien's Elo (1757) is +182 over Thiago Agustin Tirante (1575); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 82.7% vs market 69.5% (edge +18.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.