Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Coco Gauff
To win
+$1.40
Total payout
$21.40
Joint prob
95.4%
Combined odds
1.07
Fair odds
1.05
Edge
+2.0%
Expected value: +$0.41 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.41 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 95.4% · fair market: 89.7% · edge: +6.4%
Model probabilities Kayla Day 4.6% · Coco Gauff 95.4% Why Coco Gauff is favoured Coco Gauff's Elo (1868) is +446 over Kayla Day (1422); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 95.4% vs market 89.7% (edge +6.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.