Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Flavio Cobolli
To win
+$16.80
Total payout
$36.80
Joint prob
70.6%
Combined odds
1.84
Fair odds
1.42
Edge
+29.9%
Expected value: +$5.98 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.98 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 70.6% · fair market: 53.1% · edge: +33.1%
Model probabilities Alexander Blockx 29.4% · Flavio Cobolli 70.6% Why Flavio Cobolli is favoured Flavio Cobolli's Elo (1641) is +132 over Alexander Blockx (1509); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 22.1% home · Platt-calibrated up to 29.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 70.6% vs market 53.1% (edge +33.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).