▸ Sealed before kickoff3.6h before kickoff2026-08-14 12:32 UTC· result settled — verifiable
20%
Low confidence
ratings essentially level · thin sample · leaning but close
How the model did
Final
0 — 2
James Duckworth won
✓ Model was right
Model assigned
52.4%
to james duckworth
Model's top pick
away
top probability
Brier (↓ better)
0.454
Log loss (↓ better)
0.647
Graded Aug 15, 2026 · 04:02
Form & matchup
JJ Wolf
Elo 1480
No recent matches on file.
James Duckworth
Elo 1416
No recent matches on file.
Rating edge
JJ Wolf +64
Confidence: 5%
Head to head
No prior meetings on file.
Rest days
JJ Wolf
–
James Duckworth
–
Model probability
v0.1.0-elo-logistic ·
JJ Wolf
47.6%
James Duckworth
52.4%
0 priced, 11 markets without prices hidden
News context not yet populated for this match. Click Regenerate below to run a fresh Gemini grounded-search pass — costs one API call.
Reasoning
Model probabilities
JJ Wolf 47.6% · James Duckworth 52.4%
Calibration
Raw model: 69.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 47.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.
Rate-limited per match. Generation cost is shared across all visitors.