Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Ugo Humbert
To win
+$18.00
Total payout
$38.00
Joint prob
52.5%
Combined odds
1.90
Fair odds
1.90
Edge
-0.3%
Expected value: $-0.05 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-0.05 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 52.5% · fair market: 50.9% · edge: +3.1%
Model probabilities Ugo Humbert 52.5% · Michael Zheng 47.5% Why Ugo Humbert is favoured Ugo Humbert's Elo (1653) is +133 over Michael Zheng (1520); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 78.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 52.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 52.5% vs market 50.9% (edge +3.1%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.