Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Marcos Giron
To win
+$21.80
Total payout
$41.80
Joint prob
58.1%
Combined odds
2.09
Fair odds
1.72
Edge
+21.4%
Expected value: +$4.29 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.29 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 58.1% · fair market: 46.5% · edge: +24.8%
Model probabilities Marcos Giron 58.1% · Sebastian Baez 41.9% Why Marcos Giron is favoured Marcos Giron's Elo (1515) is +35 over Sebastian Baez (1480); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 60.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 58.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 58.1% vs market 46.5% (edge +24.8%, suggested Kelly +19.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.