Model probabilities Emiliana Arango 41.7% · Nadia Podoroska 58.3% Why Nadia Podoroska is favoured Emiliana Arango's Elo (1455) is +27 over Nadia Podoroska (1427); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 58.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 41.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.