Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Eva Lys
To win
+$12.20
Total payout
$32.20
Joint prob
69.4%
Combined odds
1.61
Fair odds
1.44
Edge
+11.7%
Expected value: +$2.34 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.34 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 69.4% · fair market: 60.3% · edge: +15.0%
Model probabilities Gabriela Knutson 30.6% · Eva Lys 69.4% Calibration Raw model: 24.1% home · Platt-calibrated up to 30.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 69.4% vs market 60.3% (edge +15.0%, suggested Kelly +19.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.