Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jiri Lehecka
To win
+$10.40
Total payout
$30.40
Joint prob
66.1%
Combined odds
1.52
Fair odds
1.51
Edge
+0.5%
Expected value: +$0.11 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.11 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 66.1% · fair market: 64.0% · edge: +3.4%
Model probabilities Jiri Lehecka 66.1% · Valentin Vacherot 33.9% Why Jiri Lehecka is favoured Jiri Lehecka's Elo (1758) is +78 over Valentin Vacherot (1680); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 70.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 66.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 66.1% vs market 64.0% (edge +3.4%, suggested Kelly +1.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.