Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Christopher O'Connell
To win
+$30.20
Total payout
$50.20
Joint prob
53.4%
Combined odds
2.51
Fair odds
1.87
Edge
+34.0%
Expected value: +$6.79 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.79 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.4% · fair market: 38.2% · edge: +39.8%
Model probabilities Jaime Faria 46.6% · Christopher O'Connell 53.4% +EV vs market away: model 53.4% vs market 38.2% (edge +39.8%, suggested Kelly +22.5% of bankroll).