Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Yannick Hanfmann
To win
+$16.00
Total payout
$36.00
Joint prob
56.9%
Combined odds
1.80
Fair odds
1.76
Edge
+2.5%
Expected value: +$0.49 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.49 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 56.9% · fair market: 54.0% · edge: +5.5%
Model probabilities Benjamin Bonzi 43.1% · Yannick Hanfmann 56.9% Why Yannick Hanfmann is favoured Yannick Hanfmann's Elo (1576) is +23 over Benjamin Bonzi (1553); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 56.9% vs market 54.0% (edge +5.5%, suggested Kelly +3.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.