Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tomas Martin Etcheverry
To win
+$15.20
Total payout
$35.20
Joint prob
58.3%
Combined odds
1.76
Fair odds
1.72
Edge
+2.6%
Expected value: +$0.52 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.52 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 58.3% · fair market: 55.0% · edge: +6.0%
Model probabilities Dalibor Svrcina 41.7% · Tomas Martin Etcheverry 58.3% Why Tomas Martin Etcheverry is favoured Tomas Martin Etcheverry's Elo (1561) is +35 over Dalibor Svrcina (1526); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 39.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 41.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 58.3% vs market 55.0% (edge +6.0%, suggested Kelly +3.4% of bankroll).