Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elina Svitolina
To win
+$5.40
Total payout
$25.40
Joint prob
83.4%
Combined odds
1.27
Fair odds
1.20
Edge
+5.9%
Expected value: +$1.18 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.18 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 83.4% · fair market: 76.0% · edge: +9.7%
Model probabilities Katerina Siniakova 16.6% · Elina Svitolina 83.4% Why Elina Svitolina is favoured Elina Svitolina's Elo (1865) is +248 over Katerina Siniakova (1617); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 12.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 16.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 83.4% vs market 76.0% (edge +9.7%, suggested Kelly +21.9% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.