Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alex Molcan
To win
+$13.20
Total payout
$33.20
Joint prob
59.1%
Combined odds
1.66
Fair odds
1.69
Edge
-1.9%
Expected value: $-0.37 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-0.37 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 59.1% · fair market: 56.5% · edge: +4.6%
Model probabilities Alex Molcan 59.1% · Titouan Droguet 40.9% Why Alex Molcan is favoured Alex Molcan's Elo (1548) is +40 over Titouan Droguet (1507); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 61.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 59.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 59.1% vs market 56.5% (edge +4.6%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).