Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Diane Parry
To win
+$317.20
Total payout
$337.20
Joint prob
27.1%
Combined odds
16.86
Fair odds
3.69
Edge
+357.3%
Expected value: +$71.46 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$71.46 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 27.1% · fair market: 5.8% · edge: +371.1%
Model probabilities Iga Swiatek 72.9% · Diane Parry 27.1% Why Iga Swiatek is favoured Iga Swiatek's Elo (1914) is +337 over Diane Parry (1577); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 91.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 72.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 27.1% vs market 5.8% (edge +371.1%, suggested Kelly +22.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.