Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alycia Parks
To win
+$91.20
Total payout
$111.20
Joint prob
21.4%
Combined odds
5.56
Fair odds
4.66
Edge
+19.2%
Expected value: +$3.84 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.84 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 21.4% · fair market: 17.4% · edge: +23.3%
Model probabilities Alycia Parks 21.4% · Alexandra Eala 78.6% Why Alexandra Eala is favoured Alexandra Eala's Elo (1670) is +138 over Alycia Parks (1532); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 21.4% vs market 17.4% (edge +23.3%, suggested Kelly +4.2% of bankroll).