Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Andrea Guerrieri
To win
+$299.40
Total payout
$319.40
Joint prob
21.9%
Combined odds
15.97
Fair odds
4.57
Edge
+249.2%
Expected value: +$49.84 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$49.84 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 21.9% · fair market: 6.1% · edge: +260.9%
Model probabilities Andrea Guerrieri 21.9% · Alex de Minaur 78.1% Calibration Raw model: 11.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 21.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 21.9% vs market 6.1% (edge +260.9%, suggested Kelly +16.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.