Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Pablo Llamas Ruiz
To win
+$32.40
Total payout
$52.40
Joint prob
39.3%
Combined odds
2.62
Fair odds
2.55
Edge
+2.9%
Expected value: +$0.58 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.58 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 39.3% · fair market: 36.6% · edge: +7.4%
Model probabilities Marcos Giron 60.7% · Pablo Llamas Ruiz 39.3% Why Marcos Giron is favoured Marcos Giron's Elo (1534) is +37 over Pablo Llamas Ruiz (1497); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 39.3% vs market 36.6% (edge +7.4%, suggested Kelly +1.8% of bankroll).