Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 64.4% · fair market: 63.1% · edge: +2.0%
Model probabilities Maria Sakkari 64.4% · Yuliia Starodubtseva 35.6% Why Maria Sakkari is favoured Maria Sakkari's Elo (1652) is +194 over Yuliia Starodubtseva (1458); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 83.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 64.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.