Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 57.3% · fair market: 57.4% · edge: -0.2%
Model probabilities Hubert Hurkacz 57.3% · Alejandro Tabilo 42.7% Why Hubert Hurkacz is favoured Hubert Hurkacz's Elo (1590) is +25 over Alejandro Tabilo (1565); high confidence. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.