Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 27.2% · fair market: 27.3% · edge: -0.5%
Model probabilities Sorana Cirstea 27.2% · Jessica Pegula 72.8% Why Jessica Pegula is favoured Jessica Pegula's Elo (1911) is +167 over Sorana Cirstea (1745); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 18.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 27.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.