Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Luciano Darderi
To win
+$14.80
Total payout
$34.80
Joint prob
65.9%
Combined odds
1.74
Fair odds
1.52
Edge
+14.7%
Expected value: +$2.95 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.95 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 65.9% · fair market: 55.9% · edge: +17.9%
Model probabilities Kyrian Jacquet 34.1% · Luciano Darderi 65.9% Why Luciano Darderi is favoured Luciano Darderi's Elo (1553) is +63 over Kyrian Jacquet (1490); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 33.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 34.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 65.9% vs market 55.9% (edge +17.9%, suggested Kelly +19.9% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.