Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Brandon Nakashima
To win
+$13.80
Total payout
$33.80
Joint prob
60.8%
Combined odds
1.69
Fair odds
1.64
Edge
+2.8%
Expected value: +$0.55 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.55 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 60.8% · fair market: 57.5% · edge: +5.7%
Model probabilities Matteo Berrettini 39.2% · Brandon Nakashima 60.8% Why Brandon Nakashima is favoured Brandon Nakashima's Elo (1681) is +47 over Matteo Berrettini (1634); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 36.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 39.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 60.8% vs market 57.5% (edge +5.7%, suggested Kelly +4.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.