Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Juan Manuel Cerundolo
To win
+$9.60
Total payout
$29.60
Joint prob
74.5%
Combined odds
1.48
Fair odds
1.34
Edge
+10.3%
Expected value: +$2.05 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.05 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 74.5% · fair market: 65.6% · edge: +13.6%
Model probabilities Juan Manuel Cerundolo 74.5% · Nicolas Mejia 25.5% Why Juan Manuel Cerundolo is favoured Juan Manuel Cerundolo's Elo (1539) is +147 over Nicolas Mejia (1392); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 79.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 74.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 74.5% vs market 65.6% (edge +13.6%, suggested Kelly +21.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.